San Francisco's Mary Daly: ' nowhere near almost done. Now that that has happened, I think we're going to have to go a little bit higher than what I said before.' Louis' James Bullard: 'I think that inflation has come in hotter than what I would have expected during the second quarter.

Meaning the odds of a recession in the future still looms large especially when you appreciate this cornucopia of hawkish comments made by Fed members and assembled by : On the other hand, I stand behind what I said in my Reitmeister Total Return commentary earlier this week in the section below: And the main measure of pain is job loss which is a main indicator that remains positive as we saw in today's surprisingly robust Government Employment report. The committee subsequently determined that the trough occurred two months after the peak, in April 2020.'įor as much as they tried to make that accessible to the layman it still leaves something to be desired. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, we concluded that the drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that the downturn should be classified as a recession even if it proved to be quite brief. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria-depth, diffusion, and duration-needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.

'The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. Meaning they have not dubbed this a recession yet.and likely won't when you appreciate the following definition on FAQ section of their site: Yes, this joke may explain why most economists are not on the standup comedy circuit -)Īt the end of the day, the official arbiter of what defines a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research who normally weighs in months after the fact.

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